28,687 days

28,687 days. That’s how long the average US citizen will live, around 78.5 years. Given the chaos of our world today, that number can be quite important. There’s a lot of inspirational things you can do with that, but we’ll be more practical today.

Given an even distribution, that means that 1 out of every 28,687 people will die today, or roughly 11,000 in the United States, from various causes.

That means if I called 1,000,000 random people today, 35 of them would likely be dead tomorrow. Is that because of my call? Not likely.

That also means that if 1,000,000 people were vaccinated today, 35 of them would likely be dead tomorrow. Is that because of the vaccine? It sure doesn’t seem that way.

Scaling that up, if I called 342M people today, 11,921 of them would die tomorrow.

Or how about the 342M doses of the vaccine that have been administered in the United States? We’d expect that 11,921 people would have died the day after taking it. You can finesse the math with typical age ranges and health of those getting the vaccine, but at a large enough scale those types of things tend to average out. If 11,921 people died the day after taking the COVID vaccine, that’s exactly what it should be if the vaccine was 100% safe.

VAERS

Tracking adverse vaccine events in a system like VAERS is hugely important to make sure things are safe, and it’s helped when awful situations arise like the Johnson & Johnson vaccine causing some blood clots earlier this year. In VAERS they generally count any event within seven days of a vaccination, so I’d expect we’d have seen somewhere around 83,447 reported deaths “from” the COVID vaccine in there so far.

When you see someone get worked up and claim that “VAERS shows that 6,207 people have died after taking the vaccine“, you can rest well knowing that, if anything, that number is lower than even the best case could predict.